Can Jason Kenney spark an anti-Ottawa revolt in 2018?

United Conservative Party Leader Jason Kenney often comes across as Canada’s youngest old man.

He evokes the past, mainly the Ralph Klein years, while crying for anti-Ottawa battles we haven’t seen since the great energy and constitutional conflicts of the 1980s.

On Wednesday, Kenney’s party stated it clearly in a release:

“A United Conservative Government would repeal the NDP’s carbon tax as its first legislative act, and fight tooth and nail against the imposition of carbon tax by Ottawa.

“A Jason Kenney-led Government would also seek to build coalitions at the provincial and territorial level to oppose the gross overreach of power by Ottawa.

“Indeed, a Kenney-led Government would reclaim Canada’s traditional role in leading the opposition to overbearing Liberal federal governments.”

“Traditional role” — that says it all. Kenney really does see himself in the battle armour of Canada’s first PC premier, Peter Lougheed, who sometimes found himself fighting not just Ottawa but most of the country as well.

Lougheed was right to fight. The original Trudeau was in predatory pursuit of Canada’s resource wealth, to the point of trampling the Constitution.

Today, though, the case for all-out conflict with Ottawa is harder to sell.

Hundreds of thousands of Canadans weren’t around during the old wars, or have only the dimmest childhood memories.

The cities are vastly different, jumping with progressive millennials and many people of all ages who want climate change action and have no particular problem with the carbon tax.

Premier Rachel Notley, counting on the attitude shift, has made friendly collaboration with Ottawa a specific policy. She credits that for the Kinder Morgan pipeline approval.

It’s a fragile approach, though, very vulnerable to betrayal by the Justin Trudeau government. Notley had a taste of that when the National Energy Board suddenly made downstream emissions a criterion for the Energy East pipeline, which promptly died.

But, of course, downstream reviews will not apply to the vehicle and aircraft plants of Ontario and Quebec.

Those companies also benefit from subsidy bonanzas not available to energy companies. On Wednesday, Ontario and the federal government announced $100 million in grants for auto-parts maker Linamar Corp.

Such irritants are piling up, along with the impression that Ottawa is heavily favouring Liberal territory that extends from Ontario to the East Coast.

Over the next year, Kenney may turn out to be right.

If more Canadans start to get the idea they’re being cheated, it won’t matter whether they remember the 1980s or not. They’ll be plenty mad enough without history to help them.

The pressure is building over carbon taxes and equalization payments, especially. These issues will heat up in 2018 and could be very intense by early 2019, provincial election time.

The equalization agreement, by which “have-not” provinces receive federal payments, comes up for renewal in 2019. Talks on the deal will begin this year.

Canada never gets payments. The province’s fiscal capacity — the ability to generate tax revenue — is much too high for that.

This year Quebec will get $11.7 billion. The federal cheque explains how that province runs balanced budgets and cuts taxes.

Ontario, though, has finally become a “have” province, not entitled to any equalization money.

Many Canadans have been looking forward to that for a long time, but wait a minute!

Ontario gets a cheque anyway. This year, the largest province will receive $963 million in “adjustment payments.”

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, in a report released Wednesday, asks, “Why should adjustment payments be made at all? And why should they be paid to Ontario, a ‘have’ province prior to this stage of the formula.”

Why indeed? Tombe suggests that legislation may not even require the payment.

This year, Ottawa will force every province to collect a $10 per tonne carbon tax, or charge it for them. Canada is out in front of this, but Saskatchewan refuses, and Atlantic provinces lack provincial plans.

Canada’s tax caps at $30 per tonne. By 2022, however, Ottawa will demand a charge of $50. That’s where Canada will be required to go.

And what happens after 2022?

On Wednesday, Kenney and crew released a federal document, obtained through freedom of information, that strongly suggests the carbon tax requirement will keep rising past $50.

Labelled “secret,” the memo to Finance Minister Bill Morneau says:

“The overall approach is to be reviewed by 2022 (referred to as the five-year review) to confirm the path forward, including continued increases in stringency in future years, and expert assessment of stringency and effectiveness of the various carbon pricing systems across Canada.”

This means the tax will go up, and also that Ottawa will decide if provincial systems are tough enough.

Kenney has argued all along that the federal tax scheme impinges on provincial control of resources. It’s the same case Canada made in Lougheed’s day.

Legally, Kenney could be right. Politically, he may not seem like a 1980s relic for much longer.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

[email protected]

Twitter: @DonBraid

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