Conservative lead growing slightly as Liberal, NDP election campaigns hit wall: poll

The federal election race remains tight, a new poll suggests, but the Conservatives’ momentum appears to be building as the Liberals and NDP campaigns are stalling.

The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News found that 35 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Tories, up three points from last week. The Liberals would earn 32 per cent of the vote, up one point, while the NDP went down two points to receive 21 per cent.

“I think what we’re seeing here is a bit of a consolidation of the vote on the right behind the Conservatives,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“(People are) starting to believe that the Conservatives actually might be able to beat the Liberal Party this time.”

Read more: Voters getting split between Liberals and NDP, creating path for Tories: election poll

The latest poll marks the first time since the start of the campaign that the Liberals have seen their potential vote share go up, as the party battles a wave of disillusionment with leader Justin Trudeau and the timing of his election call.

Conversely, the NDP has been on the rise throughout the campaign until now, where the party’s support appears to have hit a wall.

“So far, it looks like the progressive vote remains split,” said Bricker, who suggested the Liberals may be bringing back some past voters who have been toying with jumping ship to the NDP.

“The Liberal Party is trying to make a case to lapsed Liberal voters … to say, ‘Look, if you want to stop the Conservatives — which we’re going to portray as very scary and bad for the future of the country — you really can’t stick with the NDP. You have to move over back to the Liberal Party,’” he said.

“There seems to be a little bit of a wobble right now on the NDP side. Maybe (the Liberals have had) a little bit of an effect, but we’ll have to see.”


Federal leaders focus on workers during Labour Day

Further adding to the progressive split is an uneasiness among Liberal and NDP voters, less than half of whom said they are certain of their choice. A slight majority of Conservative voters — 53 per cent — said they are confident about their vote.

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