How Erin O’Toole is carving a path to government

  Éric Grenier

If you peruse the Wikipedia page for the latest federal election polls — and, let’s face it, you probably have it bookmarked — you might have noticed a lot of blue.

Indeed, before the next round of online polls might mix things up, the last 14 entries — and 18 of the last 20 — have given the Conservatives a lead. These are all the daily trackers from Mainstreet, EKOS and Nanos, however, as none of the online polls have put the Conservatives ahead since the campaign began. But that could change very quickly.

In the aggregate, the Conservatives probably aren’t ahead by enough to win the most seats. But they are inching toward the place where they will not only be ahead in the popular vote but in the seat projections, too. And while there are constitutional reasons why winning the most seats won’t necessarily make Erin O’Toole the next prime minister, it is something that is no longer an unlikely outcome of this election.

So, let’s take a look at how Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives have got here — and what their path to a plurality looks like.

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