The Calgary-Lougheed byelection looks like The Jason Kenney Show, but his rivals are hoping to spoil the ending.
The byelection on Thursday was triggered by the resignation of MLA Dave Rodney to clear a path to the legislature for Kenney, the first leader of the newly constituted United Conservative Party.
Kenney, the former MP and federal cabinet minister who handily won the Progressive Conservative and UCP leaderships this year, is the overwhelming favourite in what has been a solidly conservative area, provincially and federally, over the years.
But Phillip van der Merwe, the family doctor running as the NDP candidate, believes he has a chance to knock off the conservative kingpin.
“There is not just an assumption on the Kenney camp’s side, but also an expectation, almost a take-it-for-granted attitude that this riding belongs to them,” he said in interview.
“One of the things we’re hearing at the doors is an almost visceral disapproval of Mr. Kenney. I’m not really sure why people think this is a shoo-in, because what we’re hearing is a lot of dislike for him.”
The NDP isn’t stinting on the campaign, bringing in a host of cabinet ministers and MLAs to canvass with van der Merwe and planning to match the UCP in byelection spending under new limits that are in place for the first time.
But van der Merwe isn’t the only one with designs on scoring an upset.
David Khan, who won the Liberal leadership this summer, says he’s the real alternative to Kenney because of widespread dissatisfaction with the NDP government in the south Calgary riding.
Khan said he thinks many former PC voters are uncomfortable with Kenney in the aftermath of the Tories and Wildrose joining together to form the UCP.
“He’s acting like he’s entitled to the constituency,” said Khan, a Calgary lawyer.
“I think he’s going to be in for a bit of a rude awakening … I don’t think it’s as easy a ride as he thought it would be.”