New poll predicts UCP forms majority government with 67 seats

by Ryan Rumbolt

Last week’s leaders debate did little to sway the majority of Albertans ahead of the provincial election, according to a new poll calling for a landslide United Conservative win on April 16.

Forum Research surveyed 1,132 Alberta voters following Thursday’s televised debate and found some 55 per cent of the electorate are in support of Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party forming the next provincial government.

The poll found just 32 per cent of voters are in favour of incumbent Premier Rachel Notley and the New Democrats hanging on to the legislature for another term. Only seven per cent said they’ll cast ballots for the Alberta Party, while a slim one per cent plan to vote for the Alberta Liberals.

Those results would see a United Conservative Party form a majority government with 67 seats. The NDP would serve as official Opposition with 18 seats, while both the Liberals and Alberta Party would each secure only one seat.

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“The United Progressive Party holds a big lead over the NDP going into the final week, with declared support from more than half of Albertans,” Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said in a statement. “A week may be an eternity in politics but, at this point, it’s going to take a major shift to jostle Jason Kenney out of the premier’s chair.”

The survey also looked at how the leaders debate may have influenced voters, with nearly three-fourths of those surveyed said the debate “did not have any effect on their vote” at 72 per cent.

Of the 28 per cent who responded the debate impacted their vote, four in 10 said they are more likely to vote for UCP, a third are more likely to vote NDP and one in 10 are more likely to vote for the Alberta Party.

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New poll predicts UCP forms majority government with 67 seats

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