Scheer leading Conservatives gaining voter momentum: poll

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The federal Conservatives are gaining voter momentum being led by Andrew Scheer, according to a new poll by Forum Research.

In a random sampling among 1,408 Canadian voters, Conservative support has risen significantly and now four in 10 – or 43% — say they would support Scheer’s party if an election were held today, up four points since December.

On the flipside, about 38% would support Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, the poll suggests.

The survey found support for the NDP falls among the lowest at just 12%. Few say they would support the Green Party at 3%, which is almost half what their support was in December at 5%. The Bloc sees a similar decline at 3%, down from 6% two months ago.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer speaks with the media in the Foyer of the House of Commons Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

“The Conservatives seem to be benefiting from the mid-mandate blues experienced by the Trudeau Liberals,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

“But an election is a long way off, and with Scheer unknown to almost half of voters, he will have a lot of work to do to turn this support into actual votes.”

Likely supporters of the PCs include those aged 35 to 44 (about 47%) and 45 to 54 (48%), men (51%), the most wealthy (53%), living in Canada (68%), with a college/university degree (47%).

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at a public town hall in Nanaimo, B.C., on Friday, Feb. 2, 2018.

Bozinoff  said if an election were held on the date of this poll, we would expect to see a Conservative majority of 181 seats, with the Liberals serving as official opposition with 142. The NDP would secure 14 and the Green Party would hold their seat. The BQ would not win a seat.

In terms of public imagine, Trudeau now sees disapproval from almost half of all respondents (47%), with the approval of just over 4 in 10 (44%). Andrew Scheer sees approval from just over one-quarter (28%), however, he remains “an unknown,” with respondents not sure what to make of him.

Jagmeet Singh celebrates with supporters after winning the first ballot in the NDP leadership race to be elected the leader of the federal New Democrats in Toronto on Sunday, October 1, 2017.

The New Democrats’ Jagmeet Singh sees approval from a quarter (26%) and disapproval from just under a third (29%).

The poll was conducted Jan. 22 to 24. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/-3%, 19 times out of 20.

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