Trudeau’s position on toxic $15B Saudi arms deal evolves and confuses

Michael Higgins
Michael Higgins

Michael Higgins: So what does Trudeau stand for? A progressive agenda and human rights? Or trade, jobs and contracts with oppressive regimes?

Another day and another attempt by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to disentangle himself from what is rapidly becoming — if it isn’t already — the most toxic Canadian trade deal ever.

A major part of the problem is that the Liberals have tied themselves so closely to a progressive agenda and human rights that it is almost impossible to separate that from the $15-billion deal to sell light armoured vehicles to the Saudis.

Standing up for human rights following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul would seem to require cancelling the contract.

But ditching the deal would result in lost Canadian jobs and a bill to the taxpayer that Trudeau originally put at $1 billion and on Thursday said would now be “in the billions of dollars.”

Such a dilemma possibly accounts for why the prime minister’s position has evolved three times in three days.

On Tuesday, it looked like the deal might still go ahead because, as Trudeau said, “The contract signed by the previous government … makes it very difficult to suspend or leave that contract,” and “I do not want to leave Canadians holding a billion-dollar bill because we’re trying to move forward on doing the right thing.”

On Wednesday, The Canadian Press reported that he was “inching closer” to cancelling the deal.

“We’re also looking at the contract to try and see what we can do because obviously, as we get clarity on what actually happened to Jamal Khashoggi, Canadians and people around the world will expect consequences.” he said.

Thursday, the prime minister had moved into active mode. “Our government is right now actively reviewing existing export permits to Saudi Arabia.”

Even the Conservatives — who secured the deal — are washing their hands of it.

Ed Fast, who was minister for international trade in Stephen Harper’s government and who announced the deal in 2014, now says he knows little about the details, including the cancellation penalty that Trudeau mentioned, The Washington Post reported.

“The expectation that we would know every single element of that contract is, I think, an unreasonable expectation,” Fast was quoted as saying by the paper.

The deal has always been viewed as a hot potato — Harper once referred to a sale of “trucks” to Saudi Arabia. Trudeau once spoke of “Jeeps.”

The contract is for 900 light armoured vehicles, including more than 100 designed for “heavy assault,” the CBC reported.

A convoy of Canadian light armoured vehicles during a training exercise. Sgt. Jean-Francois Lauzé/Combat Camera/General Dynamics

Trudeau’s dilemma is compounded because if he acts, it is unlikely he will be followed by any other country.

Germany is the only country that has said it will halt arms sales to the Saudis. Reuters reported that Berlin is now reviewing all Saudi sales, including contracts approved in September for more patrol boats and four Cobra counter-battery radar systems.

But Donald Trump — the U.S. is the biggest seller of arms to Saudi Arabia — has been forthright in saying he will not cancel any contracts, and other countries in Europe are following his lead.

“In the absence of clear leadership from the United States, others are now co-ordinating their policy,” Janice Stein, the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto, told The Washington Post. “In terms of effectiveness, working alone is not an option.”

However, Trudeau must formulate an action plan.

“This is treacherous political territory in an election year, for anybody,” she said. “Canada has been struggling to find exactly the right level of response.”

Hani Faris, an adjunct professor of political science at the University of British Columbia who specializes in the Middle East, argued in the Post that the economic hit would be small relative to the size of Canada’s economy.

“Whatever the government decides, it is not going to affect the economy in any serious manner,” he said. “If it comes to that, Canada can stomach it and move on.”

Still, he did not expect Canada to make a big move on its own.

I do not want to leave Canadians holding a billion-dollar bill because we’re trying to move forward on doing the right thing

Canada has already had one bruising encounter with the Saudis this year. In the summer, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland sent out two tweets critical of Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on female activists. The criticism led to a diplomatic standoff in which Saudi Arabia froze its investments in Canada, recalled its ambassador and gave the Canadian ambassador in Riyadh 24 hours to leave.

Stein said one lesson from this summer’s diplomatic standoff is that Canada’s taking a stand against Saudi Arabia on human rights without the support of other nations does not work well.

Dennis Horak, the Canada’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia who was expelled, has argued in these pages that only by engaging with the Kingdom can we make a difference.

“If we target the Canadian arms industry to retaliate or punish Saudi Arabia we are misfiring. It would do nothing to shape or curb Saudi behaviour. They will brush it off. The only people really being punished would be Canadian workers as well as the Canadian military and tech sectors that benefit from the economies of scale that come with exports.”

Plus they would find buyers elsewhere.

“The reality is that, these days, countries like Saudi Arabia are the main buyers. I’d rather they buy Canadian kit with the controls we put in place than source their needs elsewhere,” he wrote.

On Tuesday, the prime minister said the Khashoggi murder was “something that the global community cannot stand for and we’re being very clear about that.”

So what does Trudeau stand for? A progressive agenda and the principle of human rights? Or trade, jobs and contracts with oppressive regimes?

— With files from The Washington Post

Trudeau’s position on toxic $15B Saudi arms deal evolves and confuses

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Categorised in: