Trudeau’s sunny days clouding over in Quebec, poll shows

René Bruemmer, Montreal Gazette

A new poll shows federal Conservatives, Liberals tied in Quebec, with Andrew Scheer’s party gaining ground.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s sunny days have become a little greyer in Quebec.

With the federal election less than three months away, a new poll shows the Conservative Party gaining ground and running neck and neck with the Liberals in a province that was key to Trudeau’s win in 2015.

Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives are polling particularly well among those who propelled the Coalition Avenir Québec into power in the last provincial election, and those who live in the Quebec City region.

At the same time, the environment remains the top concern among residents of the province.

The Forum Research poll of 977 Quebecers taken in late July shows that 30 per cent would vote for the Liberals if a federal election was held today, while 28 per cent would support the Conservatives. The Bloc Québécois garnered 15 per cent of the vote, while 10 per cent said they would vote for the Green Party and 9 per cent for the NDP.

The fledgling People’s Party of Canada, led by Maxime Bernier, took 4 per cent of the vote.

In a similar poll taken June 11-12 in Quebec, 32 per cent said they would vote Liberal, and 25 per cent chose the Conservatives. Support for the NDP, Green Party and Bloc remained stable.

“The gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is narrowing in Quebec and that is bad news for the Liberals,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research. “The Liberals need a strong showing in Quebec and Ontario to win government, and a strong Conservative Party and a resurgent Bloc make that much, much more difficult.”

Quebec was a key factor in Trudeau’s victory in the October 2015 election.

The Liberals’ took 40 of 78 seats in the province, surpassing expectations. Trudeau won 36 per cent of the popular vote in Quebec, the NDP 25 per cent, the Bloc 19 per cent, the Conservatives 17 per cent, and the Greens three per cent.

In the latest poll, support for the Liberals was strongest in Montreal, garnering 41 per cent of the vote compared to 17 per cent for the Conservatives. Support for Scheer was strongest in the Quebec City region, where he took 48 per cent of voters’ intended votes. In the rest of Quebec, the Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals by 6 per cent, representing a gain over June’s poll, when the Conservatives only had a 3-per-cent lead over the Liberals.

full story at

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Categorised in: