Liberals could revert to third-party status if MPs ignore constituents’ concerns, warns rookie Grit MP

By Abbas Rana

Liberal MPs are aiming to meet their door-knocking targets set by the party in the summer and the Grits’ numbers are trending up the further away they get from the India trip, says pollster Nik Nanos.

Liberals jumped from the third-party status to win a majority government in the 2015 general election, but they could easily revert to their pre-election status if Grit MPs don’t reach out regularly to constituents before the next election, says rookie Liberal MP Bryan May.

“I remind my colleagues and all the volunteers it only took four years to go from third to first, and it could go back the other way if we don’t stay out there, if we don’t connect with people, and we don’t listen. That’s what we’re doing right now,” said Mr. May (Cambridge, Ont.) in an interview with The Hill Times last week.

Mr. May, chair of the House Human Resources and Skills Development Committee and who won his riding by a margin of only 4.5 per cent of the votes in 2015, said he knows his riding will be targeted in 2019, but also said he’s not worried. In 2011, he finished third, winning only 15.5 per cent of the votes compared to then-incumbent Conservative MP Gary Goodyear who carried the riding with 53.4 per cent, and the second place NDP candidate who won 27.6 per cent of the votes. Mr. May said he won the last election by a close margin, but like the Liberal Party, he jumped from third place to first place after a massive vote swing of 20,000 voted for him.

“So, there was an over 20,000 vote swing in my favour. Although it was a small margin but the amount of ground that we carried was very, very significant,” said Mr. May. “What that shows us is that it can go back the other way, just as quick for almost everybody in the country.”

During the 2015 campaign, Mr. May said constituents told him they thought it was great he was reaching out, but also said that if he won the election, they likely wouldn’t see him for four years. He said he took that message to heart and has tried to meet with constituents regularly ever since. Because of his routine, he has either met the Liberal Party’s threshold or is very close to it requiring incumbent MPs to knock on 3,500 doors or to make 5,000 phone calls by Oct. 1 if they wanted to avoid nomination challenges.

In January, the federal Liberals said incumbent MPs have to participate in at least two “voter contact day of action” door knocking events in the last 12 months in their ridings; attempt to at least knock on 3,500 doors or make 5,000 phone calls; raise funds equivalent to 50 per cent of the expected election expense limit for 2019 in their ridings; and submit a written plan to raise the other half; sign up at least 30 new donors based on the Jan. 1, 2016, or Jan. 1, 2018, numbers, whichever is less; and secure signatures of support from at least 150 registered Liberals in the riding. All MPs are required to complete these prerequisites by October of this year. It’s expected that if not all, an overwhelming majority of the 184 Liberal MPs would be acclaimed.

On Twitter, MPs, staffers, and volunteers have been using the hash tag #GoKnockDoors to tweet their comments and pictures. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) also has recorded a video message encouraging MPs to get out there. His chief of staff, Katie Telford, and Zita Astravas, chief of staff to Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South, B.C.), have also posted comments and messages encouraging Grit MPs to go door knocking.

On Saturday at the Liberals’ policy convention in Halifax, Prime Minister Trudeau also urged party members, volunteers, and MPs to stay in touch with voters, in a rousing campaign-style speech.