Trudeau has six months to avoid Notley’s fate

Kelly McParland

Of 708 seats in 10 provincial legislatures, Liberals now hold just 173, less than one-quarter

A researcher looking back on Canada from some future perch could be forgiven for suspecting there must have been some sort of Liberal-eating disease at loose in the land between the years 2015 and 2019.

It’s been an ugly period, no question, for a party that sees itself as an inclusive, big-tent unifying force yet seems fated to rule in periods of restiveness and discontent.

In his early days as prime minister, Justin Trudeau — when he wasn’t posing for magazine covers or inspiring admiring headlines in foreign publications — could gaze across Canada and view a sea of progress for self-declared “progressives.”

There were Liberal governments in Quebec, Ontario and across the Atlantic provinces. Albertans had chucked out the Tories for the first time in forever. New Democrats had been running Manitoba for 15 years, and Liberals had been in power in British Columbia almost as long — though B.C. Liberals aren’t quite like the ones you’d find elsewhere.

A little over three years later and it’s all gone. Ousted in Quebec, decimated in Ontario. Of 708 seats in 10 provincial legislatures, Liberals hold just 173, less than one-quarter. The three remaining premiers are huddled together on the eastern coast, where their number could soon be reduced to one after upcoming elections in Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island. Of 37 million Canadians, just 1.6 million are in provinces governed by the Liberals.

Is it just a coincidence that the party that professes great faith in unity and co-operative federalism can’t seem to find a country it can get along with? The last great wave of Western resentment crested under an earlier Trudeau. Two efforts to separate Quebec from Canada produced referendums under Liberal prime ministers. While not a Liberal, Alberta premier Rachel Notley was as popular and progressive as they come when she took office, more than willing to work with the Trudeau Liberals towards shared ambitions of carbon reduction and pipeline expansion. Her defeat Tuesday resulted from many Albertans’ belief that Ottawa betrayed that trust.

Trudeau didn’t make oil prices tank, and Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were no great success at getting pipelines built either. It’s not Notley’s fault that Canada’s courts so easily co-operate in the delaying tactics of activist zealots. Neither can the NDP be blamed for umpteen previous Alberta governments blowing through oil revenues during boom times while failing to prepare for the downturns.

Both promised so much, however, and proved unable to deliver. The euphoria that greeted Trudeau’s victory and Notley’s triumph was always a bit unrealistic. The disillusion that’s followed is a direct result. Progressivism’s belief system is all about the advances to be gained from bonhomie and good intent, the great advances waiting to be seized via right-minded people waging a just campaign for the greater good.

In advance of October’s election, Trudeau, under pressure from scandals and missteps, is already on the road seeking to give new life to that revivalist spirit.

“The choice Canadians will be facing is one about striving forward confidently into the future and knowing that if we work together we can solve these big problems,” he declared in a speech to party members Wednesday.

full story at https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kelly-mcparland-trudeau-has-six-months-to-avoid-notleys-fate