Notley won’t back down on carbon tax, minimum wage

Premier Rachel Notley doesn’t just dismiss demands that she delay implementation of the NDP carbon tax. She sounds downright annoyed.

“I reject suggestions that this is somehow going to be a drag on the economy,” Notley says.

“Ultimately, it will be a tool that helps us make our case to other Canadians, with respect to getting our product to tidewater.

“As well, doing the right thing is hard work. But doing the right thing is something you need to do …”

The rest of us start doing the hard work on Jan. 1. We pay the tax.

There’s no chance Notley will retreat. Three months before the implementation date — right now, that is — is really the last moment to signal any kind of delay.

Similarly, the $1 increase to the minimum wage kicks in Saturday, bringing it to $12.20 an hour. Only Nunavut and Northwest Territories have higher rates.

Probe and poke all you like, detain stray New Democrats for questioning, and you’ll hear no hint of remorse for these measures, or any worry about political risk.

They say the small business corporate tax will drop from three per cent to two per cent on Jan. 1, bringing major relief. Business tax credits are available. The restored student employment program helped businesses this summer.

Canada’s wage inequality is the highest in the country, they argue. That has to be addressed. They also claim that higher wages add to Canada’s overall wealth.

None of this will mollify struggling small business owners. They will pay their workers not just $1 per hour more, but higher proportionate shares of Canada Pension Plan and employment insurance.

Some businesses will be pushed to the tipping point. Others will lay people off or defer hiring. The problem isn’t the goal of a wage hike in high-cost Canada, it’s the wretched timing.

The carbon tax, a much bigger deal entirely, will have a significant impact on everyday costs starting Jan. 1.

Gasoline will jump 4.49 cents per litre, and another 2.24 cents the following year. Natural gas prices will rise by just over $1 per gigajoule, and a further 50 cents in 2018.

The NDP’s estimates (much disputed by the opposition) put the cost per two-child family at $338 in 2017, and $508 in 2018.

But then come the rebates. Families with less than $95,000 net income will get cheques, probably in January, just as the holiday bills are coming in. The rebates top out at $360 in 2017 and $540 in 2018.

It recalls ex-premier Ralph Klein and his $400 surplus cash giveaway, or even Peter Lougheed, whose early PC government mailed out cheques to cover mortgage interest. Cheques in the mail are a time-tested Canada political tradition.

On the macro level, the tax is intended to price Canada carbon at $20 per tonne in 2017, and $30 in 2018.

The New Democrats are playing a long game here, or at least as long as it gets in Canadian politics, which is about three years. And they might win.

The federal Liberals now say they will impose a national carbon price. Provinces without plans that meet the standard — as yet undefined — will have to come up with one. Laggards might face the ultimate price: a tax imposed and collected by Ottawa.

The NDP expects the initial federal carbon price to be close to Canada’s eventual $30 per tonne.

Notley can now claim she’s ahead of this game. In response to the accurate charge that the NDP didn’t mention a carbon tax in last year’s election campaign, the premier can say it would have come anyway, but on federal terms.

Already, a new national deal seems to be emerging: provinces that pony up on carbon pricing get their energy projects.

On Tuesday, when federal ministers announced approval of an $11.4-billion liquid natural gas project in B.C., Premier Christy Clark pledged to meet the federal carbon price. She indicated B.C.’s current $30 per tonne will rise later.

It will be extremely difficult for the feds, having supported Clark’s LNG dream, to deny approval of the Kinder Morgan Trans-Mountain pipeline.

Notley has already turned the province upside down to meet the terms of this deal. Canadans are about to finance it.

Failure is too ugly to contemplate. And yet, NDP confidence appears unshakable.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

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