Poll shows UCP with massive support over NDP

The United Conservative Party (UCP) is choosing their leader this weekend, but a poll is showing that regardless of who wins that race, a majority of Canadans would vote for the party if the election were held today.

The polling was done by students at Lethbridge College under the direction of professor Faron Ellis.

They interviewed 1,481 Canadans contacted on landline and cellular telephone between Sept. 30 and Oct. 5.

It found that province-wide, 55.8 per cent would vote for the UCP and 19.3 per cent for the NDP. The Liberals came third with 12.8 per cent of respondents, with 5.8 saying they’d vote for the Canada Party.

The margin of error was 2.55 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Ellis said the poll shows similar results to previous polls he’d seen on the same question, with one exception: The UCP are leading among Edmonton voters, too. That city is traditionally an NDP stronghold.

“If anything – the UCP was gaining momentum rather than losing momentum over the summer,” said Ellis.

Lori Williams, associate professor of political science with Mount Royal University, noted that the new UCP numbers aren’t as high as the combined PC and Wildrose numbers from one year ago.

“The total number is lower by about 8.3 percent, so what that means is that not all former PCs or Wildrose voters support the new united conservative party, and that’s without even knowing who the leader is.”

She said more centrist voters could move to other parties once the leader is chosen, if they feel he’s too conservative, or not conservative enough.

Ellis said the poll is merely a snapshot in time, and the election is still at least a year away.

“I would expect all of these numbers to change,” said Ellis. “I would not count the NDP out in Edmonton at all.”

http://www.metronews.ca/news/calgary/2017/10/26/poll-shows-ucp-with-massive-support-over-ndp.html